America is out of Afghanistan. For now.
The timing of our exit was established, at least in part, on the desire of the Biden administration to leave 20 years to the day after 9/11, which would have been great optics. Unfortunately, insufficient consideration was given by the Biden administration to planning and coordination, with the result being a rushed evacuation that left thousands of people and billions of dollars in weapons behind. Our ill-conceived departure contributed to the near-immediate collapse of the Afghan government and military, and resulted in on outpouring of completely justified anger and frustration on the part of our allies.
Despite our past experience in Iraq, insufficient attention was paid by the Biden administration to anticipate what would come after we left. Clearly there was no overriding strategy in play, no Biden doctrine as it were. Not that there was ever a Trump doctrine either.
Due to the lack of situational awareness and the unwillingness to change strategy even in the face of failure, hundreds of lives have been lost. Thousands more lives will be lost in the near term as the Taliban consolidate their gains and exert their authority. Tragically, American lives will probably be among them.
Once the commitment had been made to withdraw from Afghanistan, there was going to be blood. It was not going to matter what administration was in power.
Only in the political world of 20/20 hindsight would a Trump administration withdrawal have been a beautiful withdrawal, possibly the most beautiful and perfect withdrawal ever. In reality, the timeframe for the withdrawal would have been even more rushed – May instead of August – and what evidence is there to conclude that it would not have been just as much of a disaster as the Biden withdrawal has been?
That being said, now we need to think about what comes next.
The overriding consideration must be to prevent future Islamic terrorism. It is unlikely that the Taliban will be willing or able to control the resurgence of Al Qaeda and ISIS, so constant vigilance on our part will be required.
It is tempting to return to the Bagram air base and re-establish a military/CIA presence. There is certainly going to be an ongoing cost involved, both financially and in American lives, but this would allow for the enhanced monitoring of militant Islamic activity and provide for an immediate response to eliminate identified threats. This means that again we would be intruders in a country where our presence is resented by many who live there, but it is likely to be required as a strategic measure to counter Islamic terrorism and to prevent another 9/11-type attack if the Taliban prove unable or unwilling to do so.
Our diplomatic efforts must now be focused on determining the intentions of the Taliban. Any continued reluctance on the part of the Taliban to facilitate the release of all remaining Americans and allied Afghans will be highly problematic, to say the least. Any reluctance on the part of the Taliban to control Al Qaeda and ISIS must be interpreted as confirmation that these terrorist groups will be allowed to operate freely within Afghanistan to plan and stage terror attacks against the U.S. and other western countries. The actions and the rhetoric of the Taliban since their ascension to power have not been reassuring.
The understanding of Islam in this country is superficial at best and has been negatively influenced by the tragic events of 9/11. There is a need for a much deeper understanding of the teachings of Islam and of Islamic societies. Respect and acceptance of Islamic cultures is paramount to our coexistence with Islam. Being uninvited intruders in an Islamic-based country is not the best way to move forward.
However, we must accept the stark reality of our situation if we are going to constructively change it. Another 9/11 event will be worse for our relationship with the Islamic world than our having a strategic outpost in Afghanistan. Whether the Bagram airbase is as defensible and impenetrable as we have been led to believe remains to be seen. A return to Bagram will be much more difficult and costly than it would have been if we had never left, but it is in the best interests of the world for us to do so.
It was an unfortunate mischaracterization to call our involvement in Afghanistan a war. It was never a war for us to win. Our involvement was in part an act of vengeance towards those responsible for 9/11, and in part a means of defending ourselves and the rest of the western world from future terrorist acts.
The Obama administration believed that the Afghan army could eventually be trained to defend Afghanistan from the Taliban and other Islamic terrorist groups. However, this did not materialize during their administration, and instead a surge of military personnel was required to address a terrorist insurgence.
The Trump administration wanted to believe that the Afghan army was a capable force, despite intelligence and military reports stating that the Afghan army could not defend Afghanistan without assistance from the U.S. and others. The Trump administration ignored these reports and entered into an ill-advised agreement with the Taliban to leave Afghanistan by a date certain, and ultimately reduced force levels to 2,500 military personnel before leaving office. These actions all but guaranteed disaster.
The Biden administration continued the Trump agreement except for extending the date certain by three months, despite additional intelligence and military reports stating that the Afghan army was not prepared to defend its own country for more than a few months, a year at most. Like the Trump administration before it, the Biden administration chose to ignore these reports when they had the opportunity to change course, and instead oversaw a disastrous withdrawal of our remaining military personnel.
Both the Trump and Biden administrations exhibited terrible judgement and are equally responsible for the outcome.
As is now tragically evident, our presence in Afghanistan was a stabilizing force and the only barrier to the establishment of an Islamic caliphate based upon a strict interpretation of the Koran and the future promulgation of terror and hatred throughout the world.
We have created a very bad situation for the world because of presidents Trump and Biden. Both men thought that they knew more than the generals, one out of conceit, one out of obstinance. Neither was right, both were wrong, and we will all suffer for it.
And to think that both men believe that they deserve a second term. Allah help us.